The Expert View

It's questionable whether I should publish this blog-post at all - giving away (as it does) all the privileged information purchased at Thursday's Cheltenham Festival Preview Night in the Cartmel Grandstand.

It'd be easier to pretend that there were no useful tips at all: Marten Julian doesn't know what will the Champion Hurdle, John Sexton has never backed the winner of the Coral Hurdle, Jimmy Moffatt fancies a non-runner in the County Hurdle and Brian Hughes doesn't care what wins the Cross Country Chase.

But the four expert panellists did express a few opinions: most of them were pretty keen on the chances of Altior in the Arkle Novices Chase as well as Douvan in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. What? Not happy with odds of 4/6 for the double? What's wrong with you - it's surely better than backing losers! Okay, they also suggested that, for the OLBG Mares Hurdle, it might be wise to check which horse was trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh. If you didn't pay for a ticket to the preview night, I don't think I can tell you any more...

Except that I'm just too excited...

Marten, Jimmy and John all like the chances of Holywell in the Ultima Handicap Steeplechase. I'm fairly sure that Jimmy said the horse could find his way around Cheltenham with his eyes closed, but I hope he doesn't try.

When it comes to the Champion Hurdle, John thinks that this could be The New One's year. Jimmy says that he'd have to grow an extra leg (The New One, not Jimmy) if he were to have any chance. He's convinced Yanworth is a certainty and a great price at 3/1. Brian says that Jimmy will refund all bets if Yanworth gets beat... which sounds like quite a good offer, but I can't find it on any of the bookmakers' websites.

Brian rides Cyrus Darius in the Champion Hurdle. He reminds us all that he proved himself a good horse by winning as a novice at Aintree, before needing some time off. Having enjoyed a winning prep race at Kelso, he could easily surprise a few people by finishing in the top three at 40/1.

Jimmy also has a big priced selection for us - his own Bon Chic who 'could easily finish in the top eight' at 100/1 in the Mares' race. The only problem is that, regardless how many places they pay prize money for, I'm pretty sure the bookmakers will only pay out on the first three. Not many people have both ridden and trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival - so I'm going to back Jimmy's mare in any case, even though Marten Julian promotes Colin's Sister and Lifeboat Mona as viable each-way alternatives.

Edwulf and Beware The Bear get favourable mentions for the National Hunt Chase, ahead of my fancy Champers On Ice. I've mentioned him here anyway as I'm pretty sure he's going to win, just like all my other selections.

Brian Hughes knows what it takes to win the Close Brothers Steeplechase because he won it last year. It's obvious that he doesn't really want to tell everyone - but he's really excited to be riding Double Ws.

On to Wednesday and everyone likes Neon Wolf with the possible exception of Marten, who just feels that his jumping isn't quite as proficient as it could be. Messire Des Obeaux and Willoughby Court are his alternatives.

No one fancies Might Bite, the short priced favourite for the RSA Chase, with Royal Vacation receiving several votes and John Sexton opting for Bigbadjohn... obviously.

'I Shot The Sheriff...', wails Jimmy when it comes to the Coral Hurdle. But he did not shoot the deputy. Brian rides Hawk High who will apparently benefit from blinkers and (possibly) from the step up in trip.    

Finally we get to Thursday and Marten's three-star-nap of the meeting. Except Brian Hughes doesn't rate Politologue's chances, pointing out how wound up the Nicholls' trained horse gets before his races. What a dilemma - I'm pretty sure that Paul Nicholls is a good enough trainer to have identified this problem and I'll be surprised if the horse isn't walking around the parade ring with tampons stuffed in his ears. Stick with Politologue.

Vosne Romanee, a previous winner at Cartmel, received a mention ahead of the County Hurdle and looks to have been laid out for the race by Dr Richard Newland. I like it when the Cartmel form gets franked at Cheltenham, especially at 33/1.  

There were loads of other horses mentioned too. Far too many to mention here. But you have to take it all with a pinch of salt because no one mentioned Saphir Du Rheu, the 66/1 winner of the Gold Cup. Honestly! and they call themselves experts...