The Cheltenham & Cartmel Pension Plan

As per normal for the month of March, I’ve invested every available penny on the horses at Cheltenham. Now it’s time to invest every penny that isn’t available too. 

As you’ll be aware by now, the Government is keen to ensure that every person in Britain prepares for old-age by paying into a personal pension plan. I won’t be able to get my hands on this money until Cheltenham 2034 - and my pension provider tells me that there is no way to put it all on Morning Royalty in the County Hurdle on Friday either.  

So I’m going to use a SIPP (Self Invested Personal Pension) as a vehicle to purchase shares in the betting industry instead. Shares in the high-street chains have been hit recently due to a combination of political factors. While they will soon have to pay a point-of-consumption tax on bets taken outside the shops from punters using their phones and internet devices, they are also under significant pressure to deal with “problem gambling” - particularly to ameliorate the risk of individuals becoming addicted to casino-type gaming machines.

I’ve visited virtually every flavour of betting shop within the last seven days and it is impossible not to notice the posters telling us to “Stay In Control” – even though every punter I know is getting over-excited and yelling “It’s Cheltenham – time to let go!” There are also pleasant ladies strolling the shop-floor to give helpful advice and spot potential problems. 

I’d like to think that, if I had walked into a shop on Tuesday with a carrier bag containing £10,000 to place on Hurricane Fly, one of those nice ladies might have taken me to one side and asked “Are you sure that is a good idea?” As it is, I didn’t try – I followed Arthur Moore’s advice from the Cartmel Preview Panel and had £3 on Jezki instead.

While bookmakers expect to accept £250 million of bets on Cheltenham this week, they are evidently taking their social responsibilities seriously. I suspect the results are going their way too – which makes Ladbrokes seriously undervalued at £1.60 a share (they were 50% higher at £2.40 a share this time last year) and William Hill good value at £3.83, more than £1 off their highest point in the last 12 months. 

I’ll be using the cash in my pocket to  back Knockara Beau at 66/1 each way in the Gold Cup. I love this horse and there’s no point in backing anything else if every strand of your heart wants to see him in front at the line. If he wins, the bookies will be laughing as he’s probably the least fancied horse in the race. And if he loses – well at least the pension gets a boost.  

Cheltenham Festival Preview Night - the Selections

I know, I know. You've clicked on to the blog because you need to know what Jimmy Moffatt had to say about Morning Royalty in the County Hurdle.

Hmmm. Should I tell you or should I not. You see you should really have been there - we had oodles of great information from the four expert panellists. Not all of it should be given away quite so easily...

Oh okay. Jimmy is obviously having palpitations, caused by being unsure whether his horse is high enough in the weights to secure a place in Friday's line-up. He's even phoned the BHA's handicapper to ask his opinion and the general consensus is: "yes", he should get a run.

You may be able to back him at 66/1, but Jimmy is pleased with the horse's wellbeing, believes that the strong pace is likely to be an assistance, is confident that the track will suit him well and thinks he is excellent value considering his strong run behind Melodic Rendezvous at Haydock.

Incidentally, we were informed by Marten Julian that John Francome fancies Melodic Rendezvous for the Champion Hurdle - and if he obliges on Tuesday, I don't suppose the 66/1 will last very long.

Marten didn't actually fancy Melodic Rendezvous himself. In fact, if I recall correctly, I don't think he was sure who he fancied - but he kept saying what an interesting race it was. I think he quite liked Our Conor - but he wasn't one of his three big bets of the meeting.

Arthur Moore flew all the way in from Ireland to tell us that Jessie Harrington is very happy with Jezki... and that Jezki might be very happy with the booking of Barry Geraghty as his jockey in the Champion Hurdle. Possibly happier than if he was going to be ridden by AP McCoy - who has been beaten on him during both his last two runs. Barry and Jezki have an unbeaten partnership of four. Interesting that. Who'd have thought?

Arthur suggested that we should back Cause Of Causes (wherever he runs), any horse trained by Willie Mullins in the Bumper and any horse sired by Midnight Legend in the handicap chases. He was also very enthusiastic about Foxrock in the Terry Biddlecome National Hunt Chase.

Brian Harding thought Clondaw Kaempfer might have been laid out for the Coral Cup, as did  Marten. He also strongly fancied Balthazar King in the Cross Country Chase - which may not be everyone's cup of tea, but a winner's a winner whatever the race is.

While Brian and Jimmy opted for Smad Place in the RSA Novices Chase, Marten nominated Morning Assembly as his charity bet in the same race - one of his big three.

Some people still believe that Big Bucks can win the World Hurdle. Amazing! Strangely, no one gave a favourable mention to At Fishers Cross - which makes me wonder if any of the panel knew what they were talking about at all. It was Annie Power, though, who received the most plaudits and there was a bit of encouragement for Zarkander.

On the final day, Jimmy was confident we'd get off to a winner with Broughton in the Triumph Hurdle - and we could play up our winnings with Silviniaco Conti in the Gold Cup. Marten gave us another 3-star bet with Kings Palace in the Albert Bartlett - and then suggested an each way interest on Triolo D'Alene in the Gold Cup. No one mentioned Knockara Beau. I wonder why?

Brian thought we might question his sanity if he tipped Mr Mole in the final race of the meeting, the Grand Annual Steeplechase. But he did it anyway. And then Marten Julian did too! All of which makes me think that perhaps we invited the wrong people...

They didn't tip Menorah in the Ryanair either - but that'll just make the price better for the rest of us.

And Marten's other "top bet"? Oh... dash, I've run out of space. You should have been there.

Two Trainers, a Jockey and Some Hairy Bikers

Bring your autograph pads, don your best outfits, hold your camera-phones at the ready - celebrities are descending on the Cartmel peninsula. As I write, the busy racecourse team (Pam and Naomi) is preparing for the panel of experts attending our annual Cheltenham Festival Preview Night. Meanwhile, my colleagues down the road at Holker Hall (the home of Lord Cavendish) are planning a gala dinner which will be hosted by the hairy biker and dancer Dave Myers, on Friday 28^th March. 

The gala event is being staged in order to raise funds for St Marys Hospice in Ulverston and Casa Familiala Madre Colomba, an orphanage in Romania. In addition to a mouth-watering menu planned by Dave Myers, there will be dancing, magical entertainment and we are even expecting Dave’s BBC co-presenter Simon King (the other hairy biker) to join the party. Tickets can be secured for £75 and you might even find yourself sitting next to me. For an additional donation, of £20, you can request a seat that isn’t on the Racecourse Manager’s table. Call 015395 53907 and speak to Sam. 

We’re trying to raise some funds for St Mary’s Hospice at the Preview Night too. Our expert tipsters have been given £100 of charity bets to place on the horses of their choice. All winnings will be paid to the Hospice and we hope that they will be considerable. That, of course, will be down to the panel which includes two festival-winning trainers, a festival-winning jockey and a bloke who looks a bit like one of the hairy bikers. 

He may not thank me for the comparison, but the form expert Marten Julian has quite a bit of facial hair; I don’t know if he can cook or dance – perhaps that will be one of tonight’s questions. Regardless, he always comes armed with excellent stable-intelligence and his own distinct views on the fancied runners. 

Arthur Moore, the Irish trainer, has prepared many Cheltenham winners including Drumgora and Klairon Davies in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. I’m hopeful that he’ll give us the inside line on some of the Irish challengers, including his own Sea Beat – who is among the favourites for the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle. Brian Harding rode One Man to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 1998 and has another interesting book of rides next week. If you want to find out what they say, you’ll have to come along (hurry - it's Thursday 6th March, 7.00pm) or read the special "Cheltenham Edition" of the “Cartmel Blogspot” this weekend. 

Jimmy Moffatt is our local man and I am expecting him to tell us that Morning Royalty has been secretly sold by owner Eileen Milligan to JP McManus and will be ridden by Tony McCoy in the County Hurdle having been backed to win millions. He probably won’t, but I’m going to have £1 each way on him now, at 66/1,  just in case.

Save £2, Win £108 More...

If you book your tickets for Cartmel Races now, you can save £2 per ticket. There is a postage fee, so it’s best to book for two or more people together. Once you’re done you’ll have secured a great day out for yourself and a few friends. The next trick is to decide what to do with the money you’ve saved. 

If I had £2 to spare this week, I'd take advantage of another special offer - the non-runner-no-bet prices being offered by bookmakers on the Cheltenham Festival. I’d place a £1 each-way “double” on Menorah to win the Ryanair Chase followed by At Fishers Cross to win the World Hurdle, at Cheltenham, in a fortnight from now. 

Menorah won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival and was placed third in the Arkle Novices’ Chase behind Sprinter Sacre in 2011. Last season he was only just out-stayed, over three miles, by First Lieutenant in a Grade 1 Steeplechase at Aintree. He’s obviously very highly regarded by his trainer Phillip Hobbs and he has the look of a horse that has been specifically campaigned with Cheltenham in mind.

While First Lieutenant trades as the 4/1 joint favourite for the Ryanair with several bookmakers, Menorah is currently available at 14/1 and looks likely to run as long as the ground isn't too soft.

If there is one horse that I really fancy for the Festival it is At Fishers Cross – who should run in the very next race on 13^th March. There is a nagging doubt though: this morning he drifted alarmingly on the betting exchanges, suggesting that all might not be well with the horse. This is where the non-runner-no-bet offers come in to play, because if the two horses turn out to be non-runners, you'll get your money back.

Assuming that At Fishers Cross lines up for the World Hurdle, he'll be the only runner who has previously beaten the favourite Big Bucks. He won the three mile novice hurdle at the Festival last year and is likely to be ridden by Tony McCoy. At Fishers Cross jumped indifferently on his first two outings this season, when he reportedly suffered from a physical problem. He was back to his old self in January, when McCoy nursed him over the last hurdle before sprinting for the finishing post – just failing to catch Knockara Beau. I doubt there’ll be any holding back in two weeks time and he can be backed at 11/2.  

When both horses win, within the space of less than 45 minutes, you’ll have just over £108 in your pocket – which will be enough to upgrade your entry ticket for Cartmel races to a luxurious seat in the Louis Roederer Restaurant overlooking the finishing straight. If they fail to win but finish in the first three, the place portion of the bet will pay more than £10 – which is the price of an adult ticket for the Course Enclosure at Cartmel on 28^th May. 

Save £2 today and bring some extra friends to Cartmel – is life really that simple? We'll find out in two weeks time.

The Cheltenham Festival - It's A Team Game

Horse racing isn’t a team sport. Is it?  Well, not if you don’t count the annual Shergar Cup Event, where teams from Britain and Europe compete with the “Rest of the World” – I suggest that if you haven’t heard of it, we don’t count it and agree that racing isn’t a team sport. Except… 

Team tactics are set to play a major role on racing’s most important stage at the Cheltenham Festival in March. From race to race and hurdle to hurdle, the trainers with the largest teams of equine players will be plotting their way to the winning post. 

Some will be planning to take out the opposition, literally. Willie Mullins, for example, is seemingly intent on diverting Annie Power away from the Mare’s race. That apostrophe is deliberately placed by the way - because since 2009 the race has belonged to one mare only: Quevega, with whom Mullins is aiming to win the race for an incredible sixth successive time next month. I don’t blame him. There’ll be many other top owners and trainers trying to keep their best horses apart. It just seems a shame that Quevega won’t be asked to face the most potent opposition available, primarily because they’re part of the same team. 

If Annie Power goes to Cheltenham at all, she may well be set on a collision course with another great champion, the Paul Nicholls trained Big Bucks. Like Quevega, Big Buck’s started his Festival winning sequence in 2009, although he’s clocked up only four victories in the Stayers’ Hurdle following an enforced break through injury last year. Unlike Mullins, Nicholls looks as though he could saturate the stayers’ event with runners and team tactics will play a large part in the race. 

Big Bucks can be a tricky ride as he tends to idle once he hits the front; when he sees another horse, he picks up the bit and races again. You can therefore be fairly certain that Nicholls will ensure that there is a decent pace in the race and, if all goes to plan, Big Bucks will be given a lead over the last obstacle. Personally I don’t think it will make any difference to the result – I am sure that Tony McCoy will have analysed every possible eventuality and he will deliver At Fishers Cross fast and late (and as wide of Big Bucks as he can) to trump both Nicholls and Mullins on the run-in. 

You can back At Fishers Cross for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 6/1 right now. However this week’s selection is Saphir du Rheu, one of the Nicholls team, who is likely to take up his entry for the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell Park on Sunday, in preference to a shot at the stayers’ crown at Cheltenham. 

For more news, views and gossip about the Cheltenham Festival, tickets are now available for the Festival Preview Night at the Cartmel Grandstand on Thursday evening 6^th March. The expert panellists will include Festival-winning Irish trainer Arthur Moore, Festival-winning Cartmel trainer, Jimmy Moffatt and top form analyst Marten Julian - so you won't have to listen to more half-baked theories from me! 

Preaching The Good Racing News

Today’s lesson comes from Corinthians, Chapter 13 (bookmakers’ translation). 

If I speak the racing lingo, but do not possess a love of the sport, I am only a resounding gong or a clanging cymbal. If I have the gift of prophecy, and can fathom all the mysteries of the form book, and have faith in Tony McCoy to move mountains, but do not have a love of the sport, I am nothing. If I take my winnings and lose them all on the next race at Southwell, I am an ass. If I boast about my losses, but have no love of the sport, then I gain nothing. 

To love the sport is to have the patience of Barney Curley whilst plotting a coup. It doesn’t mean that we envy Barney Curley (even just a little bit); nor does it mean that we boast about backing Imperial Commander in the 2010 Gold Cup (when he thrashed Kauto Star and Denman); or that we are too proud to admit to backing the “outsider of three” on a regular basis. 

Love does not laugh at the selections of others; pretend that its selections are better than others (even when they’re trained by Jim Goldie, called Caledonia and entered for the 4.05 at Haydock on Saturday); get cross when its horses lose; or keep a record of its losses.

Love rejoices whichever trainer wins, even those that complain about the going before the first race has been run. It protects, trusts and places faith in the integrity of the sport, while persevering when previously banned jockeys and trainers get their licences back.  

Our love of the sport will never fail. But where there are predictions, they will fail; where there is gossip, it will be proved false; where there is knowledge, it will be proved wrong – because we can only know half the story until we read Pricewise in The Racing Post… when all will be revealed. 

When I was a child I wasn’t allowed in betting shops, so I used to give 50 pence to my Dad instead. Now that I have become a man, I have an online betting account. If I knew then what I know now, I would probably have become a bookmaker. 

As the Cheltenham Festival approaches we have faith in the sport, hopes for the sport and a love of the sport. But the greatest of these is our love of the sport.

 

Sand and Spectators

You might think that when a popular horse like Jim Goldie’s Hawkeyethenoo runs at Lingfield, he makes just as splendid a spectacle on the sand as he does on the turf at Ascot or York. You might think so, but you’d be wrong. Same horse, same jockey, same tactics, completely different level of interest. 

Last week The Racing Post’s principle tipster, Tom Segal, confessed that he struggles to find any enthusiasm for all-weather racing. Meanwhile, Alan Lee, writing in The Times, remarked on the dearth of racegoers at Britain’s all-weather tracks – an average of just 788 per day across 314 fixtures. When it comes to racing on an artificial surface, it seems that the majority of race fans develop attention deficit disorder. 

The truth is that the majority of these fixtures are not scheduled with racegoers in mind; they are scheduled for the betting industry. Initially the all-weather tracks bridged a gap in the schedules when freezing conditions impacted on turf tracks. The tracks weren’t always as resistant to adverse weather as their name suggested, but in general they performed a valuable service. In later years the focus changed to exploiting new time-slots. 

The all-weather tracks at Wolverhampton and Kempton were designed with floodlights, enabling them to race during dark evenings, which in turn allowed high-street betting shops to remain open for longer hours. The all-weather racecourses are rewarded financially by the betting industry through media rights payments and, to be fair, they have recently announced some dramatic increases to their prize funds.

The industry has a business plan which effectively promotes all-weather racing: if the fixtures generate sufficient off-course betting turnover, the Horserace Betting Levy Board (HBLB) makes significant contributions towards the prize money and integrity costs of each meeting, irrespective of their appeal to racegoers. Why else would there be plans to build two or three more?

The danger of reducing a spectator sport to this level is that the focus shifts away from the core values that established the fan base. Customers vote with their feet - or the lack of them. On some days the gates may as well stay closed to the public - perhaps this will be part of the business model for all-weather tracks in the future. 

By voicing such concerns, I could be accused of espousing elitist snobbery with a tenuous grasp of the commercial realities that drive the sport... But hang it! Cartmel is hardly elitist and I fully appreciate that the racing and betting industries are inextricably linked.

I like to have a bet as much as the next man (and possibly the two men standing next to him, the lady next to them and the one watching the dogs on the main screen; although the guy playing the roulette machine, in the corner of the betting shop, probably has it worse than I do). The thing is, I believe that the sport of horse racing is integral to my betting enjoyment - not an incidental side show. 

When it comes to racing on turf, Alan Lee noted that Cartmel achieved an average crowd of 9,012 per fixture in 2013 – more than any of the three tracks which host the Classics of the Flat racing season: Doncaster, Epsom and Newmarket (as well as Newbury where this week’s selection is Chris Pea Green - each way in the race that the nostalgic will still think of as the "Schweppes").

While I’ll gladly accept any plaudits, the current management team at Cartmel can take very little credit for the amazing crowds that we welcome each Summer. It was our far-sighted predecessors who created the formula for a fun racing event which attracts hoards of people to this beautiful corner of Cumbria. And it is these people, the ones that attend year after year, who lend racing at Cartmel its vitality and party-like atmosphere. To me, fixtures at Cartmel – and similar events where the racegoer is key to the proceedings - are what horse racing is all about. 

Twenty years ago, media rights payments from betting shops were paid according to a formula which took account of the number of racegoers in attendance at each meeting. If the HBLB could find a way to reward racecourses for generating larger crowds, all tracks (including the all-weather ones) would place a greater emphasis on attracting and entertaining the public.

The fixture list would look very different. Levy yields may decline slightly; they may not. Jump fixtures in the winter would have to be protected. There might be fewer all-weather fixtures - but I bet that they would be more fun to attend, they'd attract bigger crowds - and the horses that race on the sand might just create as good a spectacle as they do on turf.