Having endured nearly three inches of rain in the past week, it’s felt a little like that at times, although it seems that a change is in the air for the Bank Holiday weekend. Fortunately, we benefit from a special micro-climate on the Cartmel Peninsula, where the sunshine in our hearts ensures that we always have a bright smile and a warm welcome for visitors.
The BBC recently
announced that their contract with the Met Office would be terminated next year
and I am thinking of applying for the vacancy. Having studied a variety of
forecasts over the last few months, I have come to the conclusion that it is a
fairly straight forward business: in the long term we can expect drier and more
settled weather in the south-east of the country, while the north-west will be
changeable.
When it comes to
local forecasting, the standard procedure seems to involve the application of
both the sunshine symbol and the rain-cloud at the same time. A cynic might suggest
that the forecasters are hedging their bets, but more often than not this
pattern of opposites is quite accurate. First we’ll get sunshine, then a burst
of rain, followed by sunshine and perhaps a bit of drizzle (or
heavy-downward-dew as we prefer to call it in the office).
I don’t intend
to invest in a super computer; I think you’ll find that when the cows’ tails
are facing west, there will be rain on the way (not that the weather will be at
its best, as the old adage indicates)… And that we should expect a storm if we
see seagulls perched on the ground… Unless it’s in the centre of the
racecourse, which probably just means that somebody has spilt their popcorn.
So, what will
the weather be like over the Bank Holiday weekend? According to the Met Office
we could have some sunshine or possibly some showers. My favourite forecaster
(for now) is the Norwegian based YRNO, who predict a predominately dry day on
Saturday (sunny spells during the races) with a completely dry and sunny Bank
Holiday Monday. There is one forecast that says it won’t rain for the next 360
days, although it turns out that this is for a place called Ica, in Peru, where
they receive a total of 2.3mm of rain per annum. If they have a racecourse
there, I expect the going is very firm indeed.
Back at Cartmel
we get a lot of calls about the going. Notably from Jimmy Moffatt, who lives
little more than half a mile from the track and who has probably walked it more
times than I have in the last three days. I’m forecasting that he will have at
least one winner over the weekend; maybe Altruism who showed a
bit of class when taking the Maiden Hurdle at the Cartmel July meeting.
There are no
seagulls here today, but the sheep in the field opposite are running towards
the gate. I think that means we’re going to have a sunny weekend; it might be
that their owner has just arrived with some food, or perhaps they’re heading
for the bookies to back one of Jimmy’s…